India's macroeconomic situation is improving fast and the country's GDP growth will turn positive in the third and fourth quarters of the current financial year, eminent economist Ashima Goyal said on Sunday. Goyal in an interview to PTI said the management of the COVID-19 pandemic and gradual unlocks announced by the government have helped in avoiding multiple COVID-19 peaks. The growth estimates by different agencies are being continuously revised, she said.
Real GDP grew by a respectable 7.8 per cent in the first half of FY'09, which was lower than its expectations but, it was nevertheless in line with its view that the economy was growing at a healthy pace and that fears of a slowdown were misplaced, CMIE said. The agricultural sector grew by 2.7 per cent during the quarter ended September 2008, lower than CMIE's expectations.
The National Council of Applied Economic Research (NCAER) on Thursday lowered the GDP projection for the current fiscal to 4.7-4.9 per cent due to exchange rate depreciation.
Indian economy is likely to expand in the range of 5.4 to 5.9 per cent this fiscal, as per government estimates.
'You can't take money from Shaktikanta Das (the RBI governor) and give it to Nirmala Sitharaman (the Union finance minister). She will blow it away on Modi.'
Economists have cautioned that any deferment of the government's fiscal goals would prove counter-productive and raise the interest payment burden.
RBI Governor Rajan on Wednesday said significant progress made in curbing current account deficit.
While players in the financial ecosystem are opening up to the idea of receivables funding for the sector, this market needs a regulator, which a Parliament panel feels only RBI can provide.
Of the six-member rate-setting monetary policy committee, five members voted for a 25 bps cut while one by 40 bps, the RBI said.
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It pointed out that farm loan waivers, combined with a potential stimulus which the government is mulling now, can result in a 1 percentage point slippage in fiscal deficit
Congress president Sonia Gandhi has convened a meeting of the party's strategy group on September 8, the sources said. Opposition leaders are keen that various like-minded parties should work closely with each other to take on the government in Parliament.
Falling economic growth, fewer job opportunities call for a smart response to handle your finances well. Here's how you can make a small beginning.
It is necessary that at least three million additional jobs (if not more) are created every year to ensure that there isn't an increase in the stock of unemployed, says Mahesh Vyas.
S&P in November ruled out an upgrade in the country's rating for some considerable period, citing India's low per capita GDP and relatively high fiscal deficit.
'Once the lockdown is lifted, we will need the mother of all fiscal and monetary policy support to sustain the economy,' advises Akash Prakash.
'One way of doing this could be offering credit guarantee to the banks, say 10 per cent, for fresh loans given to micro, small and medium enterprises,' observes Tamal Bandyopadhyay.
FM is seen to step up the pace of sales of state assets and curb spending
The monsoon session of Parliament is likely to begin in the third week of July and end by mid August.
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'We have lived through 10% plus inflation in India and we are aware of the economic pitfall.' 'With the RBI now having formally adopted an inflation target range, they cannot turn a blind eye to the impending risks.'
Top gainers in the Sensex pack included Bharti Airtel, Tata Motors, IndusInd Bank, Kotak Bank, Hero MotoCorp, Asian Paints and PowerGrid, which rose up to 2.53 per cent.
Only Rs 10,720 crore of the junked currency notes did not return to the banking system, rest 99.9 per cent was deposited raising question mark over the government's effort of curbing black money through the demonetisation.
Moody's on Monday slashed India's growth forecast for 2020 to 5.4 per cent from 6.6 per cent projected earlier, on slower than expected economic recovery. In its update on Global Macro Outlook, Moody's Investors Service said India's economy has decelerated rapidly over the last 2 years and economic recovery is likely to be 'shallow'.
On the eve of the Budget presentation, economists on Thursday said the they expect the government to roll back some of the stimulus measures, as the economic growth is on rebound with the Economic Survey projecting the GDP to expand by up to 8.75 per cent in FY'11.
Some experts argue that India's new growth figures are due to the revised calculation of GDP, which was launched in January
'Our first great challenge is to create 12 million new jobs each year, to make the demographic dividend an economic dividend.' 'We are nowhere near that,' points out Mohan Guruswamy.
There is a relation between pollution and climate change, the environment minister said, adding that 40 per cent of India's total power capacity will come from renewable sources before 2030.
Budget has laid emphasis on increasing social spends
When oil prices collapse from $110 to $45, economic agents in India experience a large income windfall.
India's finance ministry on Wednesday ordered small-bore austerity measures including a ban on holding meetings at five star hotels and creation of new posts in federal departments, at a time when government revenue growth has slowed down.
The Barclays' report also said that the effort to reduce fiscal deficit through austerity measures is weighing on growth.
The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) is precariously balancing two opposing objectives - maintaining easy financial condition in the domestic market, while ensuring external stability - and economists have started taking note. They say India is going through the classic trilemma of the 'Impossible Trinity'. The RBI cannot have an independent monetary policy (setting domestic interest rates) in an environment of an open capital account and flexible exchange rates. What is even more complicated for the central bank now is that financial market stability overlays all the other three objectives.
Finance Minister Arun Jaitley on Friday tabled the pre-Budget Economic Survey in the Lok Sabha.
With less than five months left for the report of the Fifteenth Finance Commission to be submitted, its chairman N K Singh said the report will have fiscal road map for states, depending on their current situation.
'India is nowhere near the peak of the infection given its large population of 1.3 billion'
Expressing serious concerns over the current account deficit touching a record 4.8 per cent in 2012-13, India Inc on Thursday asked the government to take all policy measures, including boosting exports and foreign exchange inflows to bring down CAD.
The market price action seems to point in this direction. Let's hope we finally break out. It is about time! asserts Akash Prakash.
Stability in currency markets was only restored from September.
He said taxation has to be rationalised to make Indian products competitive.
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